T.J. Prebil

The Content Wars

Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011

Eight tracks to cassette tapes, groovy! Cassette tapes to CDs, totally awesome! CDs to MP3s, phat! VHS to DVDs, dude! Standard cable to HDTV cable, rock on! Paperback to eBook, I’ll bring the French onion dip to the next book club meeting!

DVD to Blu-ray, whatcha-talkin-about, Willis? HDTV to 3-D, really?

With the growing popularity and impending ubiquity of streaming content, we’ve arrived at the final frontier of media formats. Why would anyone upgrade to Blu-ray when six months from now they can stream any movie anytime for a fraction of the cost? From this point forward it’s winner take all in the Content Wars.

Odds favor Apple – that sleek company that designs its products in California but manufacturers them in China – as the big winner. And with their i-everything – iTV, iPad, iPod, iPhone and iTunes – seamless integration and off-the-charts brand equity, it’s tough to bet against them.

Of course, Apple’s not the only player. Sony, NBC, Google, Netflix, Microsoft and scores of lesser-known concerns are scrambling to find a chair before the music stops.

If I had to hedge my bets on a frontrunner, however, I’d double-down on Amazon! Putting aside the company’s distribution might – a undeniable ingredient to their success – Amazon has a leg-up because they’re purposely not trying to create a walled garden (RIP AOL) around content.

Want to watch a movie on your computer, no problem! Want to stream the movie to your TV through Ruko, done! Want to read a book on your Kindle, easy! Want to read that same book on your laptop/desktop, iPad, iPhone or Android-enabled smartphone, pie! Want to download a song or album to play on your iPod, computer or other device (not sure such a device exists), checkmate!

Soon consumers will demand the ability to purchase/rent/download/stream movies, books and music from any type of device – regardless of manufacture. If this prediction holds true, Amazon will win the Content Wars.

Goodbye Desktop Software?

Saturday, October 30th, 2010

When creating strategies and plans, marketers look at a product’s life cycle to determine the stage of its growth. Generally, all products, at one point in time – as seen in the chart below – will go through a development, introduction, growth, maturity and decline phase.

Where some products (e.g. Tickle Me Elmo) have relatively quick life cycles that might last a year, others – like Diet Coke – may last for decades. Depending on a product’s life cycle, marketers will adjust promotional tactics and spends accordingly.

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I used to work for an e-commerce company which specifically catered to software vendors who sold their products online. Nearly all of the company’s revenue was derived from selling desktop software applications, with a particular emphasis on anti-virus, anti-malware and PC utilities (e.g. think late night commercials for solutions that claim to revitalize your computer).

In the year since I parted ways with that organization, I’ve been amazed to see how much the landscape has changed. In fact, if recent reports are any indication, the desktop software market – as an industry – has reached its decline phase. One needn’t look any further than what’s happening with some of world’s most prominent technology companies for tangible examples.

Further, I see these trends in my daily workflows as, other than a browser and occasionally a basic text editor, I rarely use desktop applications anymore. And with more people accessing data via tablets and smart phones, web-based computing will continue to gain momentum, cannibalizing the desktop market in its wake.

Are desktop applications going away tomorrow? No. But I believe the industry has reached its decline phase, and that’s a significant leap from where I thought the industry was a year ago.

Three Pain Points and an Edge!

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Setting aside resources, execution, and dedicated team members – all crucial to breathing life into an idea – business opportunities are abundant, and often they evolve from solving simple problems. Sometimes specialized industry knowledge is required to see an opportunity but frequently all that is needed is a unique perspective.

Individuals, entrepreneurs, and/or employees can make a case for investigating new business opportunities by identifying at least three existing “pain points” and one “edge.”  Whereas pain points are basically observations that question standard practices, an edge provides an inclination that existing competitors, because of their model, practices, or culture, would be unwilling or unable to pursue the same opportunity.

Business history is littered with examples. Here are few of my favorites.

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Tablet Mania

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

If last week’s CES conference in Las Vegas was any indication, 2010 is going to be the year of the tablet. Though these book-like computing devices have been around for years, they have yet to gain significant traction in the marketplace. Yet with rumors of such a device being introduced by Apple, the frenzy around tablets has reached an all time high.

Case in point, at CES alone, Lenovo, Sony, ViewSonic, ICD, HP, Entourage Systems, and Plastic Logic, all revealed tablet-like devices, with varying degrees of functionality. It’s clear that no one wants to be left standing without a chair when the music stops the same way they were when Apple launched its iPod, or iPhone for that matter.

The trouble is that even with all the hype, there’s still no clearly defined need for such a device. Sure, Sony, Barnes & Noble, and Amazon have had success with their respective digital reading devices, but is there any specific consumer need that is not already being met by laptops and mobile phones?

My guess is that Apple’s tablet, if it’s unveiled, will basically be a larger iPhone (I don’t own an iPhone) with the ability to watch movies, listen to music, surf the internet, download apps, purchase digital content (books, newspapers etc), and even control household devices. Given Apple’s knack for design and ingenuity, I’m sure the device will be a hit among Apple enthusiasts.

Unfortunately, I don’t believe the same will be true for the other companies competing in the tablet market because 1) Apple already has an enormous advantage with iTunes and its app store and 2) because the market for tablet devices to date has been lukewarm at best.

Do consumers really need seven, eight, or more tablet options? Time will tell.